Is the existence of property cycles consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

A number of empirical studies have confirmed the existence of property cycles in various mature real estate markets. In this paper, we will see whether these results fit in with the existing relevant theories. The efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is one of the cornerstones of the mainstream finance. In the context of the equity market, one of the generally accepted implications of the EMH is the future price of a security is unpredictable. The real estate market, by various empirical studies, has found to be weak form efficient. It is thus natural to infer that no property cycle exists as otherwise it would imply the predictability of property price and that is not consistent with EMH. This study, after reviewing the up-to-date literature, found the Efficient Market Hypothesis has taken on a new face; it is separated from the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH). Due to its infallibility in empirical testing, it could well be recessed to the role of benchmarking the relative efficiency of the market. The apparent inconsistency between the existence of property cycles and EMH therefore disappears. The behavioural school of finance proclaims that market may not be efficient all the time and provides an explanation for this. Under this school of thought, the apparent conflict between the existence of property cycles and EMH again disappears.published_or_final_versio

Enabling Hyper-Personalisation: Automated Ad Creative Generation and Ranking for Fashion e-Commerce

Homepage is the first touch point in the customer's journey and is one of the prominent channels of revenue for many e-commerce companies. A user's attention is mostly captured by homepage banner images (also called Ads/Creatives). The set of banners shown and their design, influence the customer's interest and plays a key role in optimizing the click through rates of the banners. Presently, massive and repetitive effort is put in, to manually create aesthetically pleasing banner images. Due to the large amount of time and effort involved in this process, only a small set of banners are made live at any point. This reduces the number of banners created as well as the degree of personalization that can be achieved. This paper thus presents a method to generate creatives automatically on a large scale in a short duration. The availability of diverse banners generated helps in improving personalization as they can cater to the taste of larger audience. The focus of our paper is on generating wide variety of homepage banners that can be made as an input for user level personalization engine. Following are the main contributions of this paper: 1) We introduce and explain the need for large scale banner generation for e-commerce 2) We present on how we utilize existing deep learning based detectors which can automatically annotate the required objects/tags from the image. 3) We also propose a Genetic Algorithm based method to generate an optimal banner layout for the given image content, input components and other design constraints. 4) Further, to aid the process of picking the right set of banners, we designed a ranking method and evaluated multiple models. All our experiments have been performed on data from Myntra (http://www.myntra.com), one of the top fashion e-commerce players in India.Comment: Workshop on Recommender Systems in Fashion, 13th ACM Conference on Recommender Systems, 201

What differences are detected by superiority trials or ruled out by noninferiority trials? A cross-sectional study on a random sample of two-hundred two-arms parallel group randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND: The smallest difference to be detected in superiority trials or the largest difference to be ruled out in noninferiority trials is a key determinant of sample size, but little guidance exists to help researchers in their choice. The objectives were to examine the distribution of differences that researchers aim to detect in clinical trials and to verify that those differences are smaller in noninferiority compared to superiority trials. METHODS: Cross-sectional study based on a random sample of two hundred two-arm, parallel group superiority (100) and noninferiority (100) randomized clinical trials published between 2004 and 2009 in 27 leading medical journals. The main outcome measure was the smallest difference in favor of the new treatment to be detected (superiority trials) or largest unfavorable difference to be ruled out (noninferiority trials) used for sample size computation, expressed as standardized difference in proportions, or standardized difference in means. Student t test and analysis of variance were used. RESULTS: The differences to be detected or ruled out varied considerably from one study to the next; e.g., for superiority trials, the standardized difference in means ranged from 0.007 to 0.87, and the standardized difference in proportions from 0.04 to 1.56. On average, superiority trials were designed to detect larger differences than noninferiority trials (standardized difference in proportions: mean 0.37 versus 0.27, P = 0.001; standardized difference in means: 0.56 versus 0.40, P = 0.006). Standardized differences were lower for mortality than for other outcomes, and lower in cardiovascular trials than in other research areas. CONCLUSIONS: Superiority trials are designed to detect larger differences than noninferiority trials are designed to rule out. The variability between studies is considerable and is partly explained by the type of outcome and the medical context. A more explicit and rational approach to choosing the difference to be detected or to be ruled out in clinical trials may be desirable

What differences are detected by superiority trials or ruled out by noninferiority trials? A cross-sectional study on a random sample of two-hundred two-arms parallel group randomized clinical trials

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The smallest difference to be detected in superiority trials or the largest difference to be ruled out in noninferiority trials is a key determinant of sample size, but little guidance exists to help researchers in their choice. The objectives were to examine the distribution of differences that researchers aim to detect in clinical trials and to verify that those differences are smaller in noninferiority compared to superiority trials.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional study based on a random sample of two hundred two-arm, parallel group superiority (100) and noninferiority (100) randomized clinical trials published between 2004 and 2009 in 27 leading medical journals. The main outcome measure was the smallest difference in favor of the new treatment to be detected (superiority trials) or largest unfavorable difference to be ruled out (noninferiority trials) used for sample size computation, expressed as standardized difference in proportions, or standardized difference in means. Student t test and analysis of variance were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The differences to be detected or ruled out varied considerably from one study to the next; e.g., for superiority trials, the standardized difference in means ranged from 0.007 to 0.87, and the standardized difference in proportions from 0.04 to 1.56. On average, superiority trials were designed to detect larger differences than noninferiority trials (standardized difference in proportions: mean 0.37 versus 0.27, <it>P </it>= 0.001; standardized difference in means: 0.56 versus 0.40, <it>P </it>= 0.006). Standardized differences were lower for mortality than for other outcomes, and lower in cardiovascular trials than in other research areas.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Superiority trials are designed to detect larger differences than noninferiority trials are designed to rule out. The variability between studies is considerable and is partly explained by the type of outcome and the medical context. A more explicit and rational approach to choosing the difference to be detected or to be ruled out in clinical trials may be desirable.</p

Health-related quality of life and long-term prognosis in chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure: a prospective survival analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Health-related quality of life (HRQL) is considered as an important outcome parameter in patients with chronic diseases. This study aimed to assess the role of disease-specific HRQL for long-term survival in patients of different diagnoses with chronic hypercapnic respiratory failure (CHRF).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a cohort of 231 stable patients (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), n = 98; non-COPD (obesity-hypoventilation syndrome, restrictive disorders, neuromuscular disorders), n = 133) with CHRF and current home mechanical ventilation (HMV), HRQL was assessed by the disease-specific Severe Respiratory Insufficiency (SRI) questionnaire and its prognostic value was prospectively evaluated during a follow-up of 2–4 years, using univariate and multivariate regression analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>HRQL was more impaired in COPD (mean ± SD SRI-summary score (SRI-SS) 52.5 ± 15.6) than non-COPD patients (67.6 ± 16.4; p < 0.001). Overall mortality during 28.9 ± 8.8 months of follow-up was 19.1% (31.6% in COPD, 9.8% in non-COPD). To identify the overall role of SRI, we first evaluated the total study population. SRI-SS and its subdomains (except attendance symptoms and sleep), as well as body mass index (BMI), leukocyte number and spirometric indices were associated with long-term survival (p < 0.01 each). Of these, SRI-SS, leukocytes and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) turned out to be independent predictors (p < 0.05 each). More specifically, in non-COPD patients SRI-SS and most of its subdomains, as well as leukocyte number, were related to survival (p < 0.05), whereas in patients with COPD only BMI and lung function but not SRI were predictive.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In patients with CHRF and HMV, the disease-specific SRI was an overall predictor of long-term survival in addition to established risk factors. However, the SRI predominantly beared information regarding long-term survival in non-COPD patients, while in COPD patients objective measures of the disease state were superior. This on one hand highlights the significance of HRQL in the long-term course of patients with CHRF, on the other hand it suggests that the predictive value of HRQL depends on the underlying disease.</p

Guidelines for reporting embedded recruitment trials

Background: Recruitment to clinical trials is difficult with many trials failing to recruit to target and within time. Embedding trials of recruitment interventions within host trials may provide a successful way to improve this. There are no guidelines for reporting such embedded methodology trials. As part of the Medical Research Council funded Systematic Techniques for Assisting Recruitment to Trials (MRC START) programme designed to test interventions to improve recruitment to trials, we developed guidelines for reporting embedded trials. Methods: We followed a three-phase guideline development process: (1) pre-meeting literature review to generate items for the reporting guidelines; (2) face-to-face consensus meetings to draft the reporting guidelines; and (3)post-meeting feedback review, and pilot testing, followed by finalisation of the reporting guidelines. Results: We developed a reporting checklist based on the Consolidated Standards for Reporting Trials (CONSORT) statement 2010. Embedded trials evaluating recruitment interventions should follow the CONSORT statement 2010 and report all items listed as essential. We used a number of examples to illustrate key issues that arise in embedded trials and how best to report them, including (a) how to deal with description of the host trial; (b) the importance of describing items that may differ in the host and embedded trials (such as the setting and the eligible population); and (c) the importance of identifying clearly the point at which the recruitment interventions were embedded in the host trial. Conclusions: Implementation of these guidelines will improve the quality of reports of embedded recruitment trials while advancing the science, design and conduct of embedded trials as a whole

Abdominal muscle fatigue following exercise in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, a restriction on maximum ventilatory capacity contributes to exercise limitation. It has been demonstrated that the diaphragm in COPD is relatively protected from fatigue during exercise. Because of expiratory flow limitation the abdominal muscles are activated early during exercise in COPD. This adds significantly to the work of breathing and may therefore contribute to exercise limitation. In healthy subjects, prior expiratory muscle fatigue has been shown itself to contribute to the development of quadriceps fatigue. It is not known whether fatigue of the abdominal muscles occurs during exercise in COPD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twitch gastric pressure (TwT10Pga), elicited by magnetic stimulation over the 10^ththoracic vertebra and twitch transdiaphragmatic pressure (TwPdi), elicited by bilateral anterolateral magnetic phrenic nerve stimulation were measured before and after symptom-limited, incremental cycle ergometry in patients with COPD.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-three COPD patients, with a mean (SD) FEV₁40.8(23.1)% predicted, achieved a mean peak workload of 53.5(15.9) W. Following exercise, TwT₁₀Pga fell from 51.3(27.1) cmH₂O to 47.4(25.2) cmH₂O (p = 0.011). TwPdi did not change significantly; pre 17.0(6.4) cmH₂O post 17.5(5.9) cmH₂O (p = 0.7). Fatiguers, defined as having a fall TwT10Pga ≥ 10% had significantly worse lung gas transfer, but did not differ in other exercise parameters.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with COPD, abdominal muscle but not diaphragm fatigue develops following symptom limited incremental cycle ergometry. Further work is needed to establish whether abdominal muscle fatigue is relevant to exercise limitation in COPD, perhaps indirectly through an effect on quadriceps fatigability.</p

Measurement of the Bottom-Strange Meson Mixing Phase in the Full CDF Data Set

We report a measurement of the bottom-strange meson mixing phase \beta_s using the time evolution of B0_s -> J/\psi (->\mu+\mu-) \phi (-> K+ K-) decays in which the quark-flavor content of the bottom-strange meson is identified at production. This measurement uses the full data set of proton-antiproton collisions at sqrt(s)= 1.96 TeV collected by the Collider Detector experiment at the Fermilab Tevatron, corresponding to 9.6 fb-1 of integrated luminosity. We report confidence regions in the two-dimensional space of \beta_s and the B0_s decay-width difference \Delta\Gamma_s, and measure \beta_s in [-\pi/2, -1.51] U [-0.06, 0.30] U [1.26, \pi/2] at the 68% confidence level, in agreement with the standard model expectation. Assuming the standard model value of \beta_s, we also determine \Delta\Gamma_s = 0.068 +- 0.026 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps-1 and the mean B0_s lifetime, \tau_s = 1.528 +- 0.019 (stat) +- 0.009 (syst) ps, which are consistent and competitive with determinations by other experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, Phys. Rev. Lett 109, 171802 (2012

Cigarette smoke induces PTX3 expression in pulmonary veins of mice in an IL-1 dependent manner

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with abnormal inflammatory responses and structural alterations of the airways, lung parenchyma and pulmonary vasculature. Since Pentraxin-3 (PTX3) is a tuner of inflammatory responses and is produced by endothelial and inflammatory cells upon stimuli such as interleukin-1β (IL-1β), we hypothesized that PTX3 is involved in COPD pathogenesis.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>We evaluated whether cigarette smoke (CS) triggers pulmonary and systemic PTX3 expression <it>in vivo </it>in a murine model of COPD. Using immunohistochemical (IHC) staining, we observed PTX3 expression in endothelial cells of lung venules and veins but not in lung arteries, airways and parenchyma. Moreover, ELISA on lung homogenates and semi-quantitative scoring of IHC-stained sections revealed a significant upregulation of PTX3 upon subacute and chronic CS exposure. Interestingly, PTX3 expression was not enhanced upon subacute CS exposure in IL-1RI KO mice, suggesting that the IL-1 pathway is implicated in CS-induced expression of vascular PTX3. Serum PTX3 levels increased rapidly but transiently after acute CS exposure.</p> <p>To elucidate the functional role of PTX3 in CS-induced responses, we examined pulmonary inflammation, protease/antiprotease balance, emphysema and body weight changes in WT and Ptx3 KO mice. CS-induced pulmonary inflammation, peribronchial lymphoid aggregates, increase in MMP-12/TIMP-1 mRNA ratio, emphysema and failure to gain weight were not significantly different in Ptx3 KO mice compared to WT mice. In addition, Ptx3 deficiency did not affect the CS-induced alterations in the pulmonary (mRNA and protein) expression of VEGF-A and FGF-2, which are crucial regulators of angiogenesis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CS increases pulmonary PTX3 expression in an IL-1 dependent manner. However, our results suggest that either PTX3 is not critical in CS-induced pulmonary inflammation, emphysema and body weight changes, or that its role can be fulfilled by other mediators with overlapping activities.</p